Elect Electability Accuracy

Our decisions are substantially influenced by what we think others are deciding. Consumers may reject or even discard an otherwise flawless product because its only flaw is that a friend intends to own the identical product. People feeling lonelier than usual are drawn to items previously used by others and then given away. People feeling chronically lonely vastly prefer products in a category endorsed by a minority—around 20% or so—of prior purchasers.
     When deciding whether to cast our ballot for a Democrat or a Republican, many of us attend to electability in the form of who we think others will vote for. Studies at University of Toronto, University of California Irvine, and University of British Columbia suggest this attention leads to mistakes. Specifically, Democrats overestimate the percentage of Americans who claim they won’t vote for a candidate from a disadvantaged group. For the studies, disadvantaged groups included the candidate labels Female, Black, Hispanic, Jewish, Muslim, Gay or Lesbian, and Atheist. These overestimates are found to a lesser degree among Republicans.
     Democrats who harbor the overestimates will consider presidential candidates carrying one or more of those labels to be less electable and so, when voting on the basis of electability, will hesitate voting for such candidates. A chief result will be that candidates from historically disadvantaged groups are underrepresented in the general election.
     The researchers’ follow-up inquires suggest two methods can lessen the bias: First, provide Democratic voters with accurate information about the prejudice against these disadvantaged groups. Second, encourage Democrats to frequently interact with Republicans.
     The bias and the remedies for it are most meaningful when little is known about the candidate. For example, informing Democratic voters that the true level of prejudice against women candidates is lower than they thought leads to the Democrats elevating electability estimates of candidates known to be women. But it had little effect on the Democrats’ estimates when the candidate was specifically labeled as Elizabeth Warren. Ms. Warren carries many labels beyond Female in voters’ minds.
     Just as there are many labels interacting, there are many influences on electability judgments. Researchers at University of London and Regents University London found that who the voter wants to be elected is one of those. Politicians’ electability estimates from U.S. participants were influenced to a greater extent by information consistent with their prior candidate preferences than by information consistent with their prior electability estimates.

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